Germany’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is set to return to power with the far-right Alternative for Germany as second-largest party, exit polls show, after snap elections dominated by concerns over immigration, the economy and the return of Donald Trump.
The CDU’s party headquarters were filled with cheers and applause on Sunday evening as the exit polls were revealed and it became clear that the opposition party was set to become the largest group after Sunday’s election. Outside the building, a small group of protesters had gathered to demonstrate against what they perceive as party leader Friedrich Merz’s hard line on immigration.
Merz declared victory at the event in central Berlin, as he told supporters “Let’s get the party started,” an apparent nod to wanting to get coalition negotiations underway quickly.
If the exit poll stands, the CDU will claim 28.8% of the vote in Sunday’s election, meaning Merz – an old-school conservative who has never held a government role previously – will become the new chancellor of Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and most populous state.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second, according to the exit poll, with an unprecedented 20.2%, meaning the party – once on the fringes as officially suspected of extremism now a major political force. However it faces exclusion from government by other parties, due to what a “firewall” arrangement.
The mood at the AfD election party was ecstatic as it emerged that the party had almost doubled its support, with people cheering and waving Germany flags. Party co-leader Alice Weidel took to the stage to tell cheering crowds that the AfD had “never been stronger.”
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) looked set to come in third with 16.2% – signaling a dramatic turnaround in the party’s fortunes since the 2021 election, when it took 25.7% of the vote.
Also notable in the exit polls was a successful outcome for the socialist Die Linke party, which won 8.5% – comfortably pushing it over the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
The “traffic light” coalition, led by Scholz, brought together an uneasy alliance of three ideologically different parties and its collapse triggered Sunday’s snap vote, a relative rarity in a country which has long had one of the most stable political systems in Europe.
Nearly 60 million Germans were eligible to vote on Sunday, according to data from the country’s Federal Statistics Office.
Sunday evening’s preliminary results cap off an eventful election period that drew extraordinary involvement from White House officials and has once again seen debate rage around Germany’s immigration policies.
Trump sent shockwaves across Europe after he pushed ahead with peace talks on Ukraine with Russia, excluding both Kyiv and European leaders.
Germany’s rebuilding after the Nazi era came under the US-led NATO security alliance and its later prosperity was powered by cheap Russian energy and trade with China.
What was once certain has unraveled and if Merz – who has pledged to tack right and promised to provide leadership in Europe – does become chancellor he has an enormous task ahead.
Two recent deadly attacks, one in Magdeburg before Christmas and another in Munich last week – both carried out by migrants with differing motives – fanned the flames of division in the run up to Sunday’s vote.
The AfD, which has been accused of using immigrants has a scapegoat, capitalized on these attacks for its own political gain, and has even called for “remigration” – the mass expulsion of immigrants, regardless of their citizenship status in Germany.
Both the CDU and the SPD also ramped up pledges around irregular migration and protecting internal security in the wake of recent attacks, meaning that even if the AfD do not take office they have already shaped the debate.
Under Germany’s system it is difficult for any party to gain enough votes to govern alone and it remains to be seen what form coalition-building talks will take.
Some aspects, however, are already clear-cut; other main parties made clear that the AfD will not be part of any negotiations, meaning it is shut out of power for now.
It seems likely that Merz will call on Scholz’s Social Democrats – the other major centrist party in Germany – to build a government. Another potential coalition partner is the environmental Greens, which served in Scholz’s so-called “traffic light coalition” government.
It remains unclear at this stage whether Merz will need one or two partners to form a majority. Three-way coalition governments in Germany are rare.
Overall, it could take weeks of haggling to form a new government, meaning more political paralysis for Berlin at a time of wider uncertainty.